Gartner，领先的信息技术研究和咨询公司，就像在3D打印行业的许多公司，对增材制造技术的前景相当乐观，预测未来四年将呈爆发式快速增长。
在通过互联网众筹集资平台的资金支持下，以及3D打印机价格大幅下降的市场背景下，3D打印机迎来了行业的春天，根据Gartner的报告，桌面3D打印市场在呈迅速上升的轨迹趋势。仅今年一年，Gartner估计，共有108151台3D打印机交货，而明年的出货量将翻番至217350。该出货量指数的增长将继续以每年翻倍的速度，达到2018年的230万台。
Gartner的研究副总裁Pete Basiliere认为很多专利到期是市场最近爆发的主要原因，并指出专利的到期使得竞争加剧和打印机价格下降。价格经历了急剧的下降短期可能会趋稳，然后再继续下降到2018。
“接下来的几年，制造商将努力增加打印机的配置和性能，而不是单纯的降低打印机的价格，”Pete Basiliere说 “因此，平均销售价格（ASP）在2014年和2015年应该会随着打印机配置的增加而提高，然后又在随后的年份随着竞争的加剧而降低。定向能量沉积技术的打印机价格最高，其次是粉末床的熔融打印机。FDM挤出式和光固化技术打印机的价格预计会随着越来越多的玩家进入这个市场而不断走低。”
Gartner估计2014年销售出的3D打印机有11.6%的单台价格从2500美元的区域下降到1000美元以下的区域。他们认为，这个比例到2018年随着竞争的加剧将上升到28.1%。此外，Gartner认为即插即打印的功能将在2016年被兼容到更多的设备里，尤其是价格在1000美元的这些打印机。即插即打印的功能指的是基床自动调平，自动加热构建平台，兼容不同丝材型号的喷嘴等确保完美的兼容性的功能。
“这种趋势将随着市场的逐渐成熟而变得更加明显，主要是因为早期的3D打印机采用的是开源的方式，而用开源打印机的消费者占大多数，” Pete Basiliere先生说 “主流的绝大多数消费者会要求简单的和一致的操作，那就是即插即打印。”
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Gartner Predicts That 217,250 3D Printers Will be Shipped Next Year, 2.3 Million by 2018
Gartner, the leading information technology research and advisory company, has been covering 3D printing for some time now. They, just like many others within the industry, have a rather rosy outlook for additive manufacturing technologies, predicting rapid growth over the next four years.
There is no doubt that, spurred on by internet crowdfunding platforms, as well as a significant drop in prices, the desktop 3D printing market is on a swift upward trajectory. This year alone, Gartner estimates a total of 108,151 3D printers will be shipped, while next year’s shipments will more than double to 217,350. This exponential growth will continue as shipments will continue to double annually, reaching more than 2.3 million by 2018, according to Gartner’s report.
Pete Basiliere, research vice president at Gartner, believes that patent expirations may be the leading cause of the recent explosion within the desktop 3D printing market, noting that various expirations have led to a significant rise in competition and a subsequent drop in prices. These price drops will probably level off soon, before once again continuing their declines going into 2018.
“Manufacturers will strive to add features and improve performance in the first few years rather than reduce the prices of printers,” stated Pete Basiliere. “Therefore, the average selling prices (ASPs) of a few technologies are expected to increase or to gradually decrease in the outer years after an increase in 2014 or 2015. Directed-energy deposition printers are the most highly priced, followed by powder bed fusion printers. The ASPs of material extrusion and vat photopolymerization printers are expected to decrease as more and more players enter the market with offerings in the lower price bands within these two technologies.”
Gartner estimates that 11.6% of printers sold in 2014, which fall into the $1 to $2,500 price range have gone for under $1,000. They believe that this percentage will rise to 28.1% by 2018 as the competition heats up even more. Additionally, Gartner believes that plug-and-print capabilities will be inherent in many more devices by 2016, estimating that 10% of printers sold which cost under $1,000 will have such capabilities. By ‘plug-and-print’ they refer to automated bed leveling, heated build platforms, and proprietary filament which is suited for each particular machine, ensuring perfect compatibility.
“This trend will accelerate as the market consisting primarily of early adopters who grew up with an open-source approach without lock-ins evolves into a market in which average consumers dominate,” said Mr. Basiliere. “While the early adopters will rage at the perversion of the 3D printer open-source ethos, the vast majority of mainstream consumers will demand the simple and consistent operation that ‘plug and print’ can provide them.”
English from3dprint.com
